14
avril
2019

AVRIL 2019

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com] [Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

Update Friday April 11, 2019 - We know all players are ready for a Massive Crash: we just don't know when the curtain is gonna fall!


Updated Sections: Silver , Indexes in Real Money/Gold,

Screen Shot 2019 04 11 at 18.31.08It's not a matter about "IF" but rather about "WHEN". We know all players are ready for a Massive Crash: we just don't know when the curtain is gonna fall!. Those who refuse to admit it and prepare now, will loose the bulk of their lifetime savings.

The odds are that even those who prepare will loose part of their savings....Today I talked to a Venezuelan lady who moved a big chunk of her assets into Panama 5 years ago. She has however been trying to sell her house in Caracas for 4 years now. Impossible it is!  She knows that the moment she leaves Venezuela, she's gonna loose her house. When I asked her WHY she did not leave when it was still time, she blamed her children. They were youngsters, had their social life and would loose it all when emigrating.

A similar story came from a South African citizen. He still owns a large farm in South Africa which is managed by a black director. He also has a buyer...who never shows up with the money and probably hopes to get the farm for free.

Real Estate, especially if acquired with a mortgage, is a CHAIN to one's freedom. Especially in countries (example the EU) where banks are able to seize any income as soon as the borrower fails to pay his monthly dues.

It certainly is possible to see higher Stock Markets. Especially when the Central Banks start to print money to buy stocks. But I doubt that the investors will be able to make any profit on the stock markets when expressed in Gold....

If you sailed through 2007–2009 without your lifestyle changing, I wouldn’t assume it will happen that way again. Ironically, it will be the response to the last recession that makes the next one so much worse. Part of the reason is that investors once again “learned” that if you simply stay the course, the market will get you back to where you were and more. The massive move into low-fee index investing instead of active management will make the next recession more painful.

75% of today’s wealth is in the hands of retirees and pre-retirees & retirees. Most have a significant portion of their money in index funds, and they’re going to see significant erosion of their retirement assets. Especially those depending on public pensions, which are heavily weighted to a form of index investing. Public pensions are already significantly underfunded and a bear market will make them even more so. It will be painful and I can assure you it will cause a lot of political angst.

Important Fundamentals:

  • Don't expect the naked crypto-currencies will save you. They cannot and will not. Only those currencies which are fully back by Gold and/or Silver will and can survive. Anybody with some common sense knows this. 
  • Late Monday, China's National Development Reform Commission listed crypto-mining among industries it intends to eliminate because of its environmental impact. The agency will allow public comment on the guidelines until May 7, but warned that they could take effect as soon as they are issued. As Bloomberg reports, China was once home to more than 90% of bitcoin trading and 70% of mining, thanks to notoriously cheap subsidized energy, particularly in the countryside. But after a crackdown began in 2017, most of the big mining pools in the country - including Bitmain - decamped for abroad, setting up mining pools in Canada and elsewhere. Back in 2018, Beijing reportedly asked local authorities to try and push crypto miners out......continue reading

Important Technicals:

  • Our chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average pictures an absolute perfect BEARISH pattern. It is telling us that a massive collapse in the stock market is about to take place. The momentum indicator is telling us that the energy fueling the present move is just about gone. The volume indicator is doing exactly what it should do if a collapse is about to begin.
  • The Dollar Index and the Euro FX  ...continue reading
   
   

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Update Wednesday & Thursday April 10/11, Canada (Trudeau) sold all the Canadian Gold...not clever at all!


Updated Sections: Aussie-Gold & Aussie/$/€, Swiss-Gold & Swiss/$/€, Can$-Gold & Can$/$/€,
¥-Gold & ¥/$/€, £-Gold & £/$/€, R-Gold & R/$/€, Kr-Gold & Kr/$/€, Yuan-Gold / Rupee-Gold ,

Screen Shot 2019 04 09 at 19.45.01Most currencies will lose at least 99% from here in the next few years. But virtually no one buys gold. They follow the lead of their central bank and have zero investment in gold. Imagine the wealth destruction that the citizens will experience in coming years. They can just check with Zimbabwe, Argentina or Venezuela to see what will happen. But they won’t of course.

Gold in both Swedish and Norwegian kroner is above the 2011 peak. Gold in South African Rand is above the 2011 peak. Gold in Swiss is about to break out of an consolidation-accumulation zone! This is a very clear indication that gold will break the resistance line at around $1,380 soon.

Central banks around the world have created the biggest bubble in history.

Next time money printing will NOT WORK! Central banks around the world have created the biggest bubble in history. When this bubble bursts in the next few years, they will have no tools to save the world. They will try the only thing they know which is unlimited money printing and lowering rates. But they will be surprised to find that this time it will have no effect. And why should it since you can’t solve a debt problem with more worthless debt.

Some Central Banks are now buying large quantities of Gold because they know exactly what is about to happen. At a certain time they will try to re-connect the dolllar and the euro Gold.  That would give gold a value of maybe $14,000 per oz. They might even do this combined with Special Drawing rights or a new Crypto-dollar, Crypto-euro. They will try to make the market believe that the new currency is the solution to the World debt problem.

Eventually we will see the start of the Greatest Financial Crisis in history. At that time, a currency crash and debt collapse is absolutely guaranteed.

But the effect of such a such a reset would be short lived. China and Russia wouldn’t accept it and they would also require the US to prove that they actually hold 8,000 tonnes of physical gold. Since the US most probably doesn’t have more than a fraction of that gold in physical form, a panic in financial markets will follow. The new Crypto-dollar & Crypto-euro would crash leading to hyperinflation. Gold and Silver would surge, creating panic in the precious metals market as it would be impossible to get hold of physical stock at virtually any price.

Eventually we will see the start of the Greatest Financial Crisis in history. At that time, a currency crash and debt collapse is absolutely guaranteed. It is only a question of when.

Important Fundamentals:

Important Technicals:

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Monday-Tuesday April 8-9, 2019 - Are you hearing the warnings issued by the IMF and BIS?


Updated Sections: Corporate Bonds, World Stock Market Indexes ,

Screen Shot 2019 04 06 at 12.35.22The coming credit meltdown will be as bad, if not worse as the great depression and the financial crisis.  I am 200% sure the people are underestimating the size of our problems and what we face will dwarf those the Great Depression and the 2008 accident. It will be called the Great Depression of the 21st Century.

The next recession will be deeper, longer and far more painful to many more people than your average recession, and could persist as long as the last one. That is because the next recession in all likelihood will be truly global.

Back in November 2018 the Bank for International Settlements published a study of “zombie” businesses. Looking at the 32,000 publicly-traded companies in 14 advanced economies, they found 12% were both:

  • At least 10 years old and still in business despite their inability to make any money.
  • Had an interest coverage ratio below 1.0 for three consecutive years. In other words, these companies weren’t making enough revenue to pay back their loans, much less cover their other expenses and earn a profit.
Corporate Bonds to start the Big Depression of the 21st Century!

Real Danger always comes out of a corner nobody expects it to come. The odds that the Great Depression gets fired up by the Corporate sector and infects the Financial sector and the Banks are extremely great. If we’re lucky, it will occur gradually, but more likely, given high leverage and interconnected markets, it will happen fast...extremely fast. So fast that it will be very hard, if possible at all to adapt.

Important Fundamentals:

Important Technicals:

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Friday April 5, 2019 - Is Gold a raging buy at under $1,300?


Updated Sections: ,

Screen Shot 2019 04 04 at 19.05.08Money printing will not work next time. Central banks around the world have created the biggest bubble in history. When this bubble bursts in the next few years, they will have no tools to save the world. They will try the only thing they know which is unlimited money printing and lowering rates. But they will be surprised to find that this time it will have no effect. And why should it since you can’t solve a debt problem with more worthless debt.

Clearly the Fed and other central banks are aware of this. This is why we could see an attempt by the Fed to substantially devalue the dollar by say 90% and back it or tie it to gold and maybe also oil. That would give gold a value of around $14,000? They could do this combined with Special Drawing rights (SDR's) or a new Cryptodollar. They will thus try to make the market believe that the new currency is the solution to the US debt problem.

But the effect of this would be short lived. Firstly, China and Russia wouldn’t accept it and they would also require the US to prove that they actually hold 8,000 tonnes of physical gold. Since they most probably don’t have more than a fraction of that gold in physical form, there will be panic in financial markets. The new Cryptodollar would crash leading to hyperinflation. Gold and silver would surge, creating panic in the precious metals market as it would be impossible to get hold of physical stock at virtually any price.

Eventually we will see the start of the Greatest Financial Crisis in history. As I have outlined many times, a currency crash and debt collapse is absolutely guaranteed. It is only a question of when. (E. von Greyerz)

Important Fundamentals:

Important Technicals:

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Thursday April 4, 2019 - People believe certain stories because everyone important tells them, and people tell those stories because everyone important believes them.


Updated Sections: ,

People believe certain stories because everyone important (the EU,...) tells them, and people tell those stories because everyone important believes them.

Screen Shot 2019 04 03 at 18.02.32British leaders must pull themselves out from the spell of storytelling and focus on their urgent responsibilities. At home, they must heed the real message of the Brexit vote: citizens being left behind by globalisation are clamouring for more protection. Prime minister Theresa May seemed briefly to recognise the primacy of that task. But she was sucked quickly into the Brexit negotiations vortex.

On Brexit, British citizens and their leaders must decide what kind of nation they want to live in (it is not the task of the EU to decide about this). The debate must pit the value of sovereignty against the risks to global peace. Such a debate is of the utmost importance for Europe, with its history of horrific wars, especially now when ugly forms of nationalism are gaining alarming numbers of adherents. Unfortunately, instead of dealing head-on with this monumentally important challenge, which must guide the Brexit decision, global leaders are selling frightening economic scenarios.

Europe has adopted multiculturalism and there is a clear racist undercurrent in the “respect” for other cultures which precludes people from active participation in society but that is not talked about. The ambition of creating an European federal union is politically untenable and will  result into a (civil) War.

Important Fundamentals:

People believe certain stories because everyone important (like the FED) tells them, and people tell those stories because everyone important believes them.

  • What an inverted yield curve really tells us is the inability of the Fed to forecast market turns. The Fed sets short term rates but they are always behind the curve since their model can never predict anything accurately. So instead of the Fed anticipating a downturn in the economy, the market will do it for them. The 10 year rate is set by the market which clearly senses the impending recession and thus buys the bonds and forces the long term rate down below the short term rate. So the market knows before the Fed that trouble is coming.
  • This proves that the Fed’s and other central banks’ manipulation of rates creates a false market which seriously distorts economic cycles. If short term rates were determined by the market, the chance of an inverted yield curve would be extremely small as short term rates would fall faster than long term rates when demand for money declines. Central banks’ manipulation not only creates false markets but also extreme economic peaks and troughs. If the natural laws of supply and demand ruled, the world economy would fare a lot better.

Important Technicals:

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Wednesday April 3, 2019 - Silver Comes Back From The Dead


Updated Sections: Investment Pyramid, Bonds general & USA, Treasuries in the EU, 

Central Bankers have no choice, they either keep interest rates low AND PRINT MONEY or the Financial System COLLPASES. Here is a quote from the foreword by Mario Draghi in the ECB’s annual report: “Substantial monetary policy stimulus remains essential to ensure the continued build-up of domestic price pressures over the medium term,” There is virtually no prospect of the ECB raising rates and in fact the balance of probabilities is pointed towards another round of quantitative easing. The main question is how long this is going to take to action.

 Screen Shot 2019 04 02 at 20.45.59

Important Fundamentals:

  • xxxx (xxx) is a much more compelling investment than xxxxx (xxxx). While both are posting big profits, “the cash flow profile should diverge for these two companies” going forward. xxxxxx is keeping spending in check while xxxxx is ramping up spending.
  • xxxx (xxxx) Keystone XL pipeline received a boost from a new executive order by President Trump approving the project. The order is intended to work around legal challenges to the pipeline, although uncertainty remains. more in the Subscriber's section

Important Technicals:

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Monday & Tuesday April 1/2, 2019 - This past week it was the BIS who dumped 5.5 million Paper-Gold.


Updated Sections: $-Gold, Silver, US-Dollar , €-Gold & €/$, , Bonds USA

It is incorrect to pretend that low interest rates kick-start an economy. They DON'T. As a matter of fact, low interest rates are a symptom of an economy in distress. Best proof we have is the period preceding the Great Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression.

US interest rates 1919 1939

Obviously economies will grow in nominal terms if central banks around the world print trillions of dollars, euros, yen, renminbi etc. and at the same time set interest rates at zero or negative. The only problem is that more and more money needs to be printed just to stand still. Because if you could create wealth by printing money, why would anyone need to work? However, as the world economy deteriorates, rates are more likely to go down than up. Logic as there will be less DEMAND for Money, it's price (interest) will fall.

But interest rates won't stay low for very long. Because of a worsening balance of trade and payments, the dollar will fall precipitously. Then international credit markets will start to panic and dump US treasuries. This will start a vicious cycle of falling bond markets, higher interest rates and a crashing dollar. Central banks will then lose total control of interest rates....

As more and more money will have to be printed to offset that sale of bonds, inflation will surge putting further upward pressure on rates. At some point in the next few years, I expect rates will at least reach the 1980-81 level of +20%. However with hyperinflation and defaults, rates could go even higher.

The fact that trees NEVER grow all the way to the sky hasn't entered the minds of all generations born after the 1960's.

The fact that trees NEVER grow all the way to the sky hasn't entered the minds of all generations born after the 1960's. They simply haven't seen an experienced anything else....they don't know what a WAR is like and the Big Depression of the 1920-30's is nothing but something which happened in history books. They are completely convinced that such an event cannot possibly occur again and that the Authorities are and will be able to ensure such a crisis never occurs again.

No snowflake, no millennium, is realizing that since the 1970's and today, Authorities have been making exactly the same mistakes and a lot worse than those made during the 1920's.

No snowflake, millennium, is realizing that since the 1970's and today, Authorities have been making exactly the same mistakes and a lot worse than those made during the 1920's. They are still convinced that BIG BROTHER will save them...that what happened in the past cannot possibly happen today or tomorrow. They keep BELIEVING in bankrupt bankers who most of the time don't understand it themselves...

This time the counter parties in the financial-markets will fail. Futures and Derivatives, ETF's  (4 quadrillion of assets) will end up being completely worthless. Banks will run into trouble and we shall have massive bail-ins. Governments will go for a debt moratorium. New issued Treasuries/Gilts will be exchanged for old one at a ration of 1 for 10 or 1 for 100...like happened so many times in history. Because of deflating bubbles, bail-ins, crashing stocks, controlled rent, disappearing demand, Real Estate will tank like there is no tomorrow....[during the Weimar depression one month's rent barely bought one loaf of bread]

gold by central banks 10 2019 03 21

Everybody who's not OUT OF the financial system, Government and Banks will loose 99% of it's wealth. I happened in the past....It will be a total destruction of wealth built up over a lifetime...just like happened to many during the 1920's-1930's and after WW II . This happened TWICE to family of mine, TWICE!

We only don't know WHEN it will happen, when the little boy will show up and shout that The Emperor Has No clothes, that The Emperor is Naked...more in the Subscriber's section

Important Fundamentals:

  • The seller was the BIS (Bank for International Settlements). The last week of March more than 5.5 million oz. PAPER GOLD were dumped in a thin market. A perfect time to dump the gold price. As a result, the gold has returned to BACKWARDATION.
  • May-Silver has also entered backwardation. Something we had not experienced since 2008 when silver was traded around $ 8.50 . At this time PHYSICAL Silver is been aggressively accumulated (more than Gold). With every dip under $ 1,300 for Gold and under $ 15 for Silver, buyers turn up en masse.
  • Conclusion: this is the endgame; so don't expect to see lower gold and silver prices soon and advised is to take further positions NOW. At least if you can do it OUTSIDE the banking system and out of political reach. Keeping your metals under your church tower is not wise at all. Whoever does it anyway, will soon experience first hand what the citizens experienced at the time of the Operation Gutt.
  • Backwardation: is a situation where the cash price is HIGHER than the future price, the price with delivery against payment over eg. 6 months.
  • Note: the BIS holds more than $ 1 TRILLION derivatives ... No Trader will NEVER dump this huge amount of Futures contracts in a very thin market (as we had in recent weeks). To add insult to injury and this proofs the BIS DOESN'T GIVE A FUCK, more gold-paper contracts were traded on Thursday last week than is legally permitted. [This dumping action is ONLY possible on the paper market.]
  • This kind of action (now 5.5 million - the previous one was 2.2 million) reminds me of the 1960s and 1970s when the Goldpool was just following the same path. That is until the losses became so large that the Gold Market was closed for a week. When the gold market re-opened, the official gold price doubled. If this were to happen today, the gold price would rise from $ 1,300 to $ 2,600 in only ONE week time. Note that, after doubling, the gold price continued to rise to $ 850 per oz ...The price of Gold went up by a factor 25!... more in the Subscriber's section

Important Technicals:

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