30
avril
2019

AVRIL 2019

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com] [Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 Monday-Tuesday April 30, 2019 - you don't own anything of what you (think you) have with any bank!


Updated Sections: Coal-Solar & Rare Elements, Agriculturals, $-Gold (short candle), Silver(short candle), US-Dollar, ,

May 1st is a major Holiday in the Socialist Democracy of the EUSSR (EU-zone). As usual all bankers, financial people...and all Europeans honor the day by taking vacation starting today until May 2nd.  This holiday period comes on top of the yearly 5 week paid vacation and all other public holidays: Boxing day, Eastern Monday, etc...

Very interesting video by Peter Schiff explaining the situation the world is in today.

The emerging markets are starting to bubble, a lot, and just under the surface of the primaries, with Venezuela’s new price for Gold at 12,812.96 gaining another 46.94 Bolivar overnight with Silver now at 150.162, a gain of 1.398 Bolivar. Argentina’s Peso price for Gold now stands at 57,807.37, gaining 1,790.71 Peso’s overnight in what can only be labeled as shocking! Especially if one just so happens to be long a precious metals futures contract in the country under that currency. Silver under the A-Peso trade is now priced at 677.464, gaining another 22.759 overnight.    

The general situation in Europe: France, Belgium, The Netherlands, the UK, Germany, Italy is escalating rapidly. More and more people realize that the situation is rapidly becoming explosive (especially in Paris-France) and have therefore decided to start working on a plan B...like starting the procedure with us for a Permanent Residency in Panama. Goldonomic has a  100% success rate and the procedure takes about 3 months. If you are interested, contact us via the contact form or send an email to: Cette adresse e-mail est protégée contre les robots spammeurs. Vous devez activer le JavaScript pour la visualiser.

Important Fundamentals:

  • All Currencies Are Tied Together Within the Central Banking System.
  • As long as you stay in the bank system, you keep a major chunk of your savings on risk...continue reading

Important Technicals:

  • A BEARISH REVERSAL pattern we have for the US-Dollar (see candle)
  • Bullish patterns we have for Gold and especially for Silver (bullish wedges) - see candles in silver section
  • The odds are that the xxx xxx will stop rising (and might even come down) as soon as end of May, beginning of June...continue reading

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Friday April 26, 2019 - Geographic Diversification Can Be a Lifesaver, Yet Most Portfolios Are Highly Geographically Concentrated


Updated Sections: ,

We continue to expect higher oil prices...and this will without any doubt add to the inflation pressure. The price of ENERGY has an important impact on the world economy....

Gold is the ultimate insurance against a bankrupt financial system, a corrupt political system and a rotten monetary system. But official propaganda, combined with people's greed, mean that virtually nobody understands the necessity of insuring against these risks. Also, investors are convinced that stocks always go up and therefore that the 147x growth in the Dow since the end of WWII will continue unabated. Few understand that exponential growth in stocks is totally dependent on an equally exponential expansion of money printing and credit, including share buybacks.

Important Fundamentals:

  • xxxxx has been trending downwards for almost a year even as analysts have attempted to outdo one another on their demand growth forecasts. What the downtrend tells us is there is plenty of supply right now amid fears about the slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Important Technicals:

  •  xxxx continues to Bottom out and xxxx xxxx continue to top...continue reading

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Thursday April 25, 2019 - A top after all?! : Stocks stall after Nasdaq hits intraday record.


Updated Sections:

The Eurozone has a demographic deficit, bad debts that represent a significant challenge, populations which are revolting at the ballot box, by electing populists, and a domestic economy that has been running on fumes for a decade. Sentiment is about as negative as it can be, investors are dismissive and one portfolio manager mentioned to me recently that India has more coverage from the analysts he receives research from than Europe. So how much worse can it get?

Today's Europe News screen on Bloomberg

Screen Shot 2019 04 24 at 18.34.38

Important Fundamentals:

Important Technicals:

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Wednesday April 24, 2019 - don't be caught by "The Stock Market's Great Fool Theory." .


Updated Sections: crude oil, 

mindsCentral Banks Are Messing With Your Mind and are sending incorrect signals to the public – Literally! In a recent article published on the Mises Wire, economist Dr. Thorsten Polleit builds on this body of knowledge, explaining how central bank manipulations of interest rates not only distort the economy, the actually mess with our minds.

This is, in a nutshell, what the Austrian Business Cycle Theory  says about the consequences of the central banks’ meddling with the market interest rate.

The artificially lowered market interest rate tempts people to save less and consume more – compared to a situation in which the market interest rate had not been artificially lowered. As savings decline and consumption increases, the lowered market interest rate causes new investment, and the result is an artificial economic upswing. However, such a “boom” is not sustainable, and at some point, it will have to turn into a recession (“bust”).

Through artificial depression of the market interest rate, people are compelled to value present consumption higher than future consumption. In fact, they are compelled to care less about the future and more about the present. Saving for future needs is discouraged, consuming in the present is encouraged. Furthermore, artificially lowered interest rates persuade people to give up a debt-free life and run into credit to bring forward future consumption to the present.

  • The artificially lowered market interest rate makes it less attractive for the individual to spend hours learning, as it would mean reducing present consumption in the form of leisure time. As a result, the quality of general education is declining.
  • Starting a family appears to become more self-sacrificing and burdensome — as parents have to forego present consumption. Also, divorce increasingly seems to be an appealing way out of current relationship problems.
  • Having good manners — getting out of somebody’s way, saying good morning, helping a stranger across the street, and so on — is considered less rewarding, as it often means restricting present consumption, forgoing potentially higher consumption in the future.

At some point in the next few years, the biggest asset and debt bubble in history will implode. The debts, which no one can repay, will be worth zero. And all the assets that were artificially inflated by this debt will also implode. There will be very little or no money in circulation since the banking system will fail.

There is only ONE WAY to try to escape the fraud and it is by holding fysical Gold & Silver out of the banking system and out of political reach....in your own box. A country that creates debts and prints money is defrauding its people. But sadly the people are unaware of the misdeeds of their government. They don’t realize that the value of the dollar, pound or euro in their pockets is declining precipitously.

 Important Fundamentals:

  • Oil prices shot up to new highs for the year on this week after the U.S. announced that it would let waivers on Iran sanctions fully expire. In early trading on Tuesday, WTI topped $66 per barrel and Brent moved above $74.
  • xxxxx (xxxx has signed a 20-year LNG deal with China’s Zhejiang province to help meet China’s soaring gas demand.
  • xxxxx (xxx) reported earnings of $0.23 per share, in line with consensus estimates. The company said that it believes the worst for pricing for oilfield services in North America is now in the past, although analysts are skeptical...continue reading

Important Technicals:

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Tuesday April 23, 2019 - The Global Economy Has Not Only Slowed, It’s Almost Stopped! !


Updated Sections: Uranium-shares, Banks & Financials ,

dead inflation
There is inflation all over the place....and it's getting worse, not better.
Especially dangerous it becomes when Mainstream Media try to sell the idea that inflation is no more, dead. 

When the debt crisis starts, which probably will happen within the next 12 months, there will be more deficits more debts and more money printing. Central banks are going to attempt to inflate the debt away, but they can of course never solve a debt problem with more debt. This time the biggest QE operation in history will have no effect. Next time around, it is likely to be in excess of $100 trillion as the $1.5 quadrillion derivatives blow up when counter parties fail. 

When the world discovers that central banks are failing with their hyper-inflationary money printing bonanza, there will be panic. The next unprecedented level of money creation will precede and accompany they next crash of the Stock Markets.

Who's gonna bail out the Central Banks?

  • The Bank of Japan Is Now A Top-10 Shareholder In 50% Of All Japanese Companies. While traders continue to obsess over daily “China trade deal optimism” headlines, Japan’s central bank is quietly nationalizing its entire market. Kuroda’s central bank owns a stunning 75% of all Japanese ETFs as the central bank keeps buying stocks under its ultraloose monetary policy. Perhaps more importantly, as of March 2018, the Japanese central bank has also become a major shareholder in nearly 40% of listed companies. According to Nikkei calculations at the time, the Bank of Japan bank was one of the top 10 shareholders in 1,446 listed companies out of 3,735.
  • After a $354 Billion U.S. Bailout, Germany’s Deutsche Bank Still Has $49 Trillion in Derivatives.  On July 21, 2011, when the GAO released its audit of the Federal Reserve’s secret $16.1 trillion in bank loans during the financial crisis, a foreign bank ranked number 9 on the list of the largest borrowers. The loans went not just to the largest banks on Wall Street but to foreign derivative counterparties to the Wall Street banks. The foreign bank that ranked 9 on the list of the largest borrowers was Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, which took $354 billion in revolving loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. A bad omen to see that the U.S. Fed throw $364 billion at one German bank when its country of origin has only reached in its pocket to the tune of $79 billion for all of its troubled banks?
  • The Swiss National Bank ....continue reading

Important Fundamentals:

Important Technicals:

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Friday April 19 to Tuesday April 22, 2019 - $ 1.5 billion paper gold bombed on an empty market to bring the gold price down by only $10 ?!


Updated Sections: Recession Proof shares (hold-sell), Bio-Tech & Pharma, Oil Shares,

This week - early in the morning - "they" sold for $ 1.5 billion paper gold in an empty market and managed to bring down the price of Gold by $10 only. "They" did not want to risk the possibility that Gold might break up the $1,380 resistance over the Eastern Weekend. One thing is sure.  The damage made by each bombing gets  increasingly smaller and soon, it will stop working all together. Just like happened during the late 1960's.

gold down 2019 04 17

Most people were just baby's in the 60's and  don't recall at all what happened during those years and don't know that after "a Bank Holiday", Gold soared from $34 to $850 per oz. They don't know there was a BANK HOLIDAY and that after the 14 days the Banksters needed to sort out the BILLIONS of incurred losses, the price of Gold doubled...continue to read.

Important Fundamentals:

  • The current stock market is the most dangerous stock market I have seen in my 45+ year career as a financial markets professional...continue reading
  • It certainly is possible to see higher nominal stock markets...which will be worth less and result in a LOSS. Especially if the system ...continue reading
  • New York and Toronto continue to look very bullish, with substantial upside targets...continue reading
  • Since 2001 the SP500 rose 180% when expressed in Fiat Money but lost 75% when expressed in Real Money or Gold...up to you to decide on which side you want to stand!

Important Technicals:

  • The SP500, COMPQ and DOW continue to TOP....and those who continue to be bullish are out of their mind. This becomes clear by checking on the charts of the indexes expressed in REAL MONEY (or gold) which still show a SOLID DOWNTREND...continue reading.
SPXGold pf1
 In real terms the SP500 lost 70%-80%  In fiat paper money the SP500 went up by 180%

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Update Thursday April 18, If only you realized how Authorities are cheating on you....


Updated Sections: Recession Proof shares, 

It's all fake. Fake prices for stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, silver, oil- you name it. Whether it be central banks and sovereign wealth funds conjuring money up out of nowhere and buying assets or governments battling between rising and falling oil prices based upon what is good for their particular country. Supply and demand has been turned on its head.

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Update Wednesday April 17, 2019 - Our Point & Figures charts tell all about Gold & Silver


Updated Sections: Juniors, ,

zim dollarThe More Money Theory (QE) is the socialists dream. It is just another fancy name to justify more money printing, generate more deficits and more debts. Socialists love it, because it justifies constantly living above your means.

The Western World, Europe, Argentina, Venezuela, Canada, the US have practiced it for 70 years. Not since the early 1960s has the US had a real budget surplus. Europe has had socialists governments for decades, but for the US it is a relatively new phenomenon. 

Trump, who normally is as far from a socialist as you can get, nevertheless  is to spending money that doesn’t exist. His tax cutting and uber-spending, will soon put the US in the same category as countries like Italy. That is what is called the basket case category where default will be unavoidable.

As opposed to Italy, the US can print its own money. And they continue to do at an ever increasing rate. But we must remember that printing unlimited amounts of worthless money leads to a total debasement of the currency which is just another form of default. 

real gdp april 2019

What few realize it that "The marginal productivity of each additional created unit of money" (Dollars, Euro's) decreases and that we have come to a point where the result on the Gross National Product has become NEGATIVE. In other words, we have come to a point where the more money is printed, the more RECESSION is created. [from 1970 to 2008 it took $0.77 of debt to produce $1 of GDP growth... continue reading

Important Fundamentals:

  • Bezos and his wife are worth $150 billion and his company Amazon has a Market Cap of $1.4 trillion. These are just fantasy numbers. And so are all the other billion and trillion dollar values that have been created out of nowhere. So the US government has printed $13 trillion since 2008. And the world as a whole has increased total debt by $125 trillion. It is all this money that has created the illusory wealth in the world in this century. Very few people realize that these numbers will all vanish in the next crisis and lose 90% to 100% in nominal value
  • The best way to determine the decline of paper money over time is to measure it against gold. All currencies are crashing against gold in this century. The dollar has lost 79% since 2000, measured in gold and the pound 82%.
  • The best way to determine the real value of STOCKS is to measure the value of the stocks against Gold. Since 2000 all Stock Market Indexes have lost...continue reading

Important Technicals:

  • Gold got Bombed last week but Miners continue to look Good....continue reading

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Update Tuesday April 16, 2019 - We heading straight to a retirement crisis


Updated Sections: Majors, ,

titanic newThe music continues to play when the titanic sinks...Authorities and Banks Use perception management to nudge you in a certain direction. The creation of Fiat Money out of thin air sends false signals to the Entrepreneurs and Politicians. It make people think everything is possible, it makes people think DEBT is not dangerous, it makes people think Global DEBT can be pushed to abnormal high levels with no consequences whatsoever.

Millenniums, Snowflakes and those born in the 1960's have not the slightest idea of what created the Weimar and the Great Depression. They were born in LALA-land and continue to live in LALA-land. They either don't know History or don't learn History. Especially Monetary History. They all will be entitled to a LALA-pension.

Central bank manipulations of interest rates not only distort the economy, they actually mess with our minds. They send incorrect, false signals to the entrepreneur...give the feeling debt is cheap while it has become EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

Inflation is THEFT and only possible on a fiat money system

  • The market interest rate is expressive of time preference, and as such, it is also a category of human action. If determined in an unhampered market, the (natural) market interest rate denotes the discount that future goods are subject to relative to present goods. If one US-dollar available in a year is trading at, say, 0.95 US-dollar, it means that the market interest rate is 5.0% (the calculation is: [0.95 / 1 – 1]*100).
  • In an non-manipulated market, the market interest rate reflects peoples’ time preference. Nowadays the market interest rate is no longer determined in an unhampered market. It is dictated by the central bank.
  • Central banks, in close cooperation with commercial banks, keep issuing new money produced through bank credit that is not backed by real savings. The purpose of such a money-increase is to bring down the interest rate: to deliberately suppress it to a level that is lower than the level of the market interest rate determined in a free market.
  • The artificially lowered market interest rate pushes people to save less and consume more – compared to a situation in which the market interest rate had not been artificially lowered.
  • As savings decline and consumption increases, the lowered market interest rate causes new investment, and the result is an artificial economic upswing. However, such a “boom” is not sustainable, and at some point, it will have to turn into a recession (“bust”). The longer this manipulation lasts for, the deeper the depression.
  • Low and Negative interest rates actually DESTROYS savings and pensions and will make the depression even worse than it would have been under normal conditions...continue reading

Important Fundamentals:

  • U.S. approves 40 percent more drilling permits under Trump. The U.S. government has approved nearly 40 percent more oil and gas drilling permits on public lands in 2018
  • xxxx xxxx xxxx has streaming deals with 23 mines in total (including many still in the development stage), but it gets most of its output from eight mines. The company is aiming to grow both organically (as these mines expand operations) and via acquisition (it announced three new deals last year, including one with Stillwater that brings in palladium and its first foray into a cobalt mine, too). It expects total production to tick up 7% this year and thinks the next five years will average 16% higher production levels than 2018. The stock should be bought during dips.continue reading

Important Technicals:

  • Gold got Bombed last week but Miners continue to look Good.
  • Majors are an absolute screaming buy at present levels. Check our Subscriber's section for details...continue reading

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Update Monday April 15, 2019 -  Democracy is probability the worst form of government...


Updated Sections: Long Term Stock Market Indexes , Royalties ,

Democracy is probability the worst form of government...the more we degenerate into this form of government, the bigger the problems get. Once the law is a predatory weapon used against those who threaten the immature sociopaths which are in power, it's only a matter of time before the people revolt...The Yellow vests are a good example, as well as the growing revolt against the Authorities we see in Western Europe. For the time being, thanks to President Trump, this movement is delayed in the USA.

Government should only be limited to certain functions and leave everything else to private enterprise. Not the other way around like it is today!

Democracy can by definition never work because it gives absolute power to the least educated of a society. Democracy always ends in Socialism and Communism. Today's politicians are only good at winning votes but fail completely in leading a country.

Assange and The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved a US$ 4.2 billion arrangement under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ecuador. The Board’s decision enables the immediate disbursement of US$652 million (equivalent to SDR 469,7 million, or 67.3 percent of Ecuador’s quota). This arrangement provides support for the Ecuadorean government’s economic policies over the next three years.

Important Fundamentals:

  • In Venezuela, with 1 oz. Silver coin one can support and feed a family during one whole month.
  • The bad news is that the odds are that the dollar (fiat money) is gonna crash overnight . Therefore you cannot be early. Either you prepare NOW or you will be too late. The good news is that if you are prepared, you will profit anyhow.
  • Central bank gold-buying has surged over the last couple of years.
  • The Italians want the gold they leased to the IMF back..I wonder whether Draghi will agree to send it back to Italy.
  • The next interest rate hike will come because of a result of inflation , NOT because of economic growth. The next rate hike will come int the middle of a recession and will therefore make it all a lot worse...
  • Thanks to ZERO interest rates, the creation of fiat money by the Bank of Japan the country has been able to avoid the worst. The Japanese Yen however has dramatically fallen in value on the Forex markets and by doing this, all Japanese assets have lost in value over the last years. Our charts of Gold expressed in Yen says it all.
  • Russians, Chinese and Iran have send troops to Venezuela to secure the largest oil reserves in the world. This insures that as required the price of Crude Oil will continue to rise to at least $xxxxx per barrel.  Even the USA needs an oil price of around $ xxxxxx to .....continue reading

Important Technicals:

  •  xxxxx seems to be the level where "the hammer" is used over and over again to slam down the price.
  • The downtrend line on the Silver chart will be broken .continue reading
   
 key candlesticks for gold  

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Update Friday April 11, 2019 - We know all players are ready for a Massive Crash: we just don't know when the curtain is gonna fall!


Updated Sections: Silver , Indexes in Real Money/Gold,

Screen Shot 2019 04 11 at 18.31.08It's not a matter about "IF" but rather about "WHEN". We know all players are ready for a Massive Crash: we just don't know when the curtain is gonna fall!. Those who refuse to admit it and prepare now, will loose the bulk of their lifetime savings.

The odds are that even those who prepare will loose part of their savings....Today I talked to a Venezuelan lady who moved a big chunk of her assets into Panama 5 years ago. She has however been trying to sell her house in Caracas for 4 years now. Impossible it is!  She knows that the moment she leaves Venezuela, she's gonna loose her house. When I asked her WHY she did not leave when it was still time, she blamed her children. They were youngsters, had their social life and would loose it all when emigrating.

A similar story came from a South African citizen. He still owns a large farm in South Africa which is managed by a black director. He also has a buyer...who never shows up with the money and probably hopes to get the farm for free.

Real Estate, especially if acquired with a mortgage, is a CHAIN to one's freedom. Especially in countries (example the EU) where banks are able to seize any income as soon as the borrower fails to pay his monthly dues.

It certainly is possible to see higher Stock Markets. Especially when the Central Banks start to print money to buy stocks. But I doubt that the investors will be able to make any profit on the stock markets when expressed in Gold....

If you sailed through 2007–2009 without your lifestyle changing, I wouldn’t assume it will happen that way again. Ironically, it will be the response to the last recession that makes the next one so much worse. Part of the reason is that investors once again “learned” that if you simply stay the course, the market will get you back to where you were and more. The massive move into low-fee index investing instead of active management will make the next recession more painful.

75% of today’s wealth is in the hands of retirees and pre-retirees & retirees. Most have a significant portion of their money in index funds, and they’re going to see significant erosion of their retirement assets. Especially those depending on public pensions, which are heavily weighted to a form of index investing. Public pensions are already significantly underfunded and a bear market will make them even more so. It will be painful and I can assure you it will cause a lot of political angst.

Important Fundamentals:

  • Don't expect the naked crypto-currencies will save you. They cannot and will not. Only those currencies which are fully back by Gold and/or Silver will and can survive. Anybody with some common sense knows this. 
  • Late Monday, China's National Development Reform Commission listed crypto-mining among industries it intends to eliminate because of its environmental impact. The agency will allow public comment on the guidelines until May 7, but warned that they could take effect as soon as they are issued. As Bloomberg reports, China was once home to more than 90% of bitcoin trading and 70% of mining, thanks to notoriously cheap subsidized energy, particularly in the countryside. But after a crackdown began in 2017, most of the big mining pools in the country - including Bitmain - decamped for abroad, setting up mining pools in Canada and elsewhere. Back in 2018, Beijing reportedly asked local authorities to try and push crypto miners out......continue reading

Important Technicals:

  • Our chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average pictures an absolute perfect BEARISH pattern. It is telling us that a massive collapse in the stock market is about to take place. The momentum indicator is telling us that the energy fueling the present move is just about gone. The volume indicator is doing exactly what it should do if a collapse is about to begin.
  • The Dollar Index and the Euro FX  ...continue reading
   
   

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Update Wednesday & Thursday April 10/11, Canada (Trudeau) sold all the Canadian Gold...not clever at all!


Updated Sections: Aussie-Gold & Aussie/$/€, Swiss-Gold & Swiss/$/€, Can$-Gold & Can$/$/€,
¥-Gold & ¥/$/€, £-Gold & £/$/€, R-Gold & R/$/€, Kr-Gold & Kr/$/€, Yuan-Gold / Rupee-Gold ,

Screen Shot 2019 04 09 at 19.45.01Most currencies will lose at least 99% from here in the next few years. But virtually no one buys gold. They follow the lead of their central bank and have zero investment in gold. Imagine the wealth destruction that the citizens will experience in coming years. They can just check with Zimbabwe, Argentina or Venezuela to see what will happen. But they won’t of course.

Gold in both Swedish and Norwegian kroner is above the 2011 peak. Gold in South African Rand is above the 2011 peak. Gold in Swiss is about to break out of an consolidation-accumulation zone! This is a very clear indication that gold will break the resistance line at around $1,380 soon.

Central banks around the world have created the biggest bubble in history.

Next time money printing will NOT WORK! Central banks around the world have created the biggest bubble in history. When this bubble bursts in the next few years, they will have no tools to save the world. They will try the only thing they know which is unlimited money printing and lowering rates. But they will be surprised to find that this time it will have no effect. And why should it since you can’t solve a debt problem with more worthless debt.

Some Central Banks are now buying large quantities of Gold because they know exactly what is about to happen. At a certain time they will try to re-connect the dolllar and the euro Gold.  That would give gold a value of maybe $14,000 per oz. They might even do this combined with Special Drawing rights or a new Crypto-dollar, Crypto-euro. They will try to make the market believe that the new currency is the solution to the World debt problem.

Eventually we will see the start of the Greatest Financial Crisis in history. At that time, a currency crash and debt collapse is absolutely guaranteed.

But the effect of such a such a reset would be short lived. China and Russia wouldn’t accept it and they would also require the US to prove that they actually hold 8,000 tonnes of physical gold. Since the US most probably doesn’t have more than a fraction of that gold in physical form, a panic in financial markets will follow. The new Crypto-dollar & Crypto-euro would crash leading to hyperinflation. Gold and Silver would surge, creating panic in the precious metals market as it would be impossible to get hold of physical stock at virtually any price.

Eventually we will see the start of the Greatest Financial Crisis in history. At that time, a currency crash and debt collapse is absolutely guaranteed. It is only a question of when.

Important Fundamentals:

Important Technicals:

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Monday-Tuesday April 8-9, 2019 - Are you hearing the warnings issued by the IMF and BIS?


Updated Sections: Corporate Bonds, World Stock Market Indexes ,

Screen Shot 2019 04 06 at 12.35.22The coming credit meltdown will be as bad, if not worse as the great depression and the financial crisis.  I am 200% sure the people are underestimating the size of our problems and what we face will dwarf those the Great Depression and the 2008 accident. It will be called the Great Depression of the 21st Century.

The next recession will be deeper, longer and far more painful to many more people than your average recession, and could persist as long as the last one. That is because the next recession in all likelihood will be truly global.

Back in November 2018 the Bank for International Settlements published a study of “zombie” businesses. Looking at the 32,000 publicly-traded companies in 14 advanced economies, they found 12% were both:

  • At least 10 years old and still in business despite their inability to make any money.
  • Had an interest coverage ratio below 1.0 for three consecutive years. In other words, these companies weren’t making enough revenue to pay back their loans, much less cover their other expenses and earn a profit.
Corporate Bonds to start the Big Depression of the 21st Century!

Real Danger always comes out of a corner nobody expects it to come. The odds that the Great Depression gets fired up by the Corporate sector and infects the Financial sector and the Banks are extremely great. If we’re lucky, it will occur gradually, but more likely, given high leverage and interconnected markets, it will happen fast...extremely fast. So fast that it will be very hard, if possible at all to adapt.

Important Fundamentals:

Important Technicals:

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Friday April 5, 2019 - Is Gold a raging buy at under $1,300?


Updated Sections: ,

Screen Shot 2019 04 04 at 19.05.08Money printing will not work next time. Central banks around the world have created the biggest bubble in history. When this bubble bursts in the next few years, they will have no tools to save the world. They will try the only thing they know which is unlimited money printing and lowering rates. But they will be surprised to find that this time it will have no effect. And why should it since you can’t solve a debt problem with more worthless debt.

Clearly the Fed and other central banks are aware of this. This is why we could see an attempt by the Fed to substantially devalue the dollar by say 90% and back it or tie it to gold and maybe also oil. That would give gold a value of around $14,000? They could do this combined with Special Drawing rights (SDR's) or a new Cryptodollar. They will thus try to make the market believe that the new currency is the solution to the US debt problem.

But the effect of this would be short lived. Firstly, China and Russia wouldn’t accept it and they would also require the US to prove that they actually hold 8,000 tonnes of physical gold. Since they most probably don’t have more than a fraction of that gold in physical form, there will be panic in financial markets. The new Cryptodollar would crash leading to hyperinflation. Gold and silver would surge, creating panic in the precious metals market as it would be impossible to get hold of physical stock at virtually any price.

Eventually we will see the start of the Greatest Financial Crisis in history. As I have outlined many times, a currency crash and debt collapse is absolutely guaranteed. It is only a question of when. (E. von Greyerz)

Important Fundamentals:

Important Technicals:

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Thursday April 4, 2019 - People believe certain stories because everyone important tells them, and people tell those stories because everyone important believes them.


Updated Sections: ,

People believe certain stories because everyone important (the EU,...) tells them, and people tell those stories because everyone important believes them.

Screen Shot 2019 04 03 at 18.02.32British leaders must pull themselves out from the spell of storytelling and focus on their urgent responsibilities. At home, they must heed the real message of the Brexit vote: citizens being left behind by globalisation are clamouring for more protection. Prime minister Theresa May seemed briefly to recognise the primacy of that task. But she was sucked quickly into the Brexit negotiations vortex.

On Brexit, British citizens and their leaders must decide what kind of nation they want to live in (it is not the task of the EU to decide about this). The debate must pit the value of sovereignty against the risks to global peace. Such a debate is of the utmost importance for Europe, with its history of horrific wars, especially now when ugly forms of nationalism are gaining alarming numbers of adherents. Unfortunately, instead of dealing head-on with this monumentally important challenge, which must guide the Brexit decision, global leaders are selling frightening economic scenarios.

Europe has adopted multiculturalism and there is a clear racist undercurrent in the “respect” for other cultures which precludes people from active participation in society but that is not talked about. The ambition of creating an European federal union is politically untenable and will  result into a (civil) War.

Important Fundamentals:

People believe certain stories because everyone important (like the FED) tells them, and people tell those stories because everyone important believes them.

  • What an inverted yield curve really tells us is the inability of the Fed to forecast market turns. The Fed sets short term rates but they are always behind the curve since their model can never predict anything accurately. So instead of the Fed anticipating a downturn in the economy, the market will do it for them. The 10 year rate is set by the market which clearly senses the impending recession and thus buys the bonds and forces the long term rate down below the short term rate. So the market knows before the Fed that trouble is coming.
  • This proves that the Fed’s and other central banks’ manipulation of rates creates a false market which seriously distorts economic cycles. If short term rates were determined by the market, the chance of an inverted yield curve would be extremely small as short term rates would fall faster than long term rates when demand for money declines. Central banks’ manipulation not only creates false markets but also extreme economic peaks and troughs. If the natural laws of supply and demand ruled, the world economy would fare a lot better.

Important Technicals:

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Wednesday April 3, 2019 - Silver Comes Back From The Dead


Updated Sections: Investment Pyramid, Bonds general & USA, Treasuries in the EU, 

Central Bankers have no choice, they either keep interest rates low AND PRINT MONEY or the Financial System COLLPASES. Here is a quote from the foreword by Mario Draghi in the ECB’s annual report: “Substantial monetary policy stimulus remains essential to ensure the continued build-up of domestic price pressures over the medium term,” There is virtually no prospect of the ECB raising rates and in fact the balance of probabilities is pointed towards another round of quantitative easing. The main question is how long this is going to take to action.

 Screen Shot 2019 04 02 at 20.45.59

Important Fundamentals:

  • xxxx (xxx) is a much more compelling investment than xxxxx (xxxx). While both are posting big profits, “the cash flow profile should diverge for these two companies” going forward. xxxxxx is keeping spending in check while xxxxx is ramping up spending.
  • xxxx (xxxx) Keystone XL pipeline received a boost from a new executive order by President Trump approving the project. The order is intended to work around legal challenges to the pipeline, although uncertainty remains. more in the Subscriber's section

Important Technicals:

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Monday & Tuesday April 1/2, 2019 - This past week it was the BIS who dumped 5.5 million Paper-Gold.


Updated Sections: $-Gold, Silver, US-Dollar , €-Gold & €/$, , Bonds USA

It is incorrect to pretend that low interest rates kick-start an economy. They DON'T. As a matter of fact, low interest rates are a symptom of an economy in distress. Best proof we have is the period preceding the Great Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression.

US interest rates 1919 1939

Obviously economies will grow in nominal terms if central banks around the world print trillions of dollars, euros, yen, renminbi etc. and at the same time set interest rates at zero or negative. The only problem is that more and more money needs to be printed just to stand still. Because if you could create wealth by printing money, why would anyone need to work? However, as the world economy deteriorates, rates are more likely to go down than up. Logic as there will be less DEMAND for Money, it's price (interest) will fall.

But interest rates won't stay low for very long. Because of a worsening balance of trade and payments, the dollar will fall precipitously. Then international credit markets will start to panic and dump US treasuries. This will start a vicious cycle of falling bond markets, higher interest rates and a crashing dollar. Central banks will then lose total control of interest rates....

As more and more money will have to be printed to offset that sale of bonds, inflation will surge putting further upward pressure on rates. At some point in the next few years, I expect rates will at least reach the 1980-81 level of +20%. However with hyperinflation and defaults, rates could go even higher.

The fact that trees NEVER grow all the way to the sky hasn't entered the minds of all generations born after the 1960's.

The fact that trees NEVER grow all the way to the sky hasn't entered the minds of all generations born after the 1960's. They simply haven't seen an experienced anything else....they don't know what a WAR is like and the Big Depression of the 1920-30's is nothing but something which happened in history books. They are completely convinced that such an event cannot possibly occur again and that the Authorities are and will be able to ensure such a crisis never occurs again.

No snowflake, no millennium, is realizing that since the 1970's and today, Authorities have been making exactly the same mistakes and a lot worse than those made during the 1920's.

No snowflake, millennium, is realizing that since the 1970's and today, Authorities have been making exactly the same mistakes and a lot worse than those made during the 1920's. They are still convinced that BIG BROTHER will save them...that what happened in the past cannot possibly happen today or tomorrow. They keep BELIEVING in bankrupt bankers who most of the time don't understand it themselves...

This time the counter parties in the financial-markets will fail. Futures and Derivatives, ETF's  (4 quadrillion of assets) will end up being completely worthless. Banks will run into trouble and we shall have massive bail-ins. Governments will go for a debt moratorium. New issued Treasuries/Gilts will be exchanged for old one at a ration of 1 for 10 or 1 for 100...like happened so many times in history. Because of deflating bubbles, bail-ins, crashing stocks, controlled rent, disappearing demand, Real Estate will tank like there is no tomorrow....[during the Weimar depression one month's rent barely bought one loaf of bread]

gold by central banks 10 2019 03 21

Everybody who's not OUT OF the financial system, Government and Banks will loose 99% of it's wealth. I happened in the past....It will be a total destruction of wealth built up over a lifetime...just like happened to many during the 1920's-1930's and after WW II . This happened TWICE to family of mine, TWICE!

We only don't know WHEN it will happen, when the little boy will show up and shout that The Emperor Has No clothes, that The Emperor is Naked...more in the Subscriber's section

Important Fundamentals:

  • The seller was the BIS (Bank for International Settlements). The last week of March more than 5.5 million oz. PAPER GOLD were dumped in a thin market. A perfect time to dump the gold price. As a result, the gold has returned to BACKWARDATION.
  • May-Silver has also entered backwardation. Something we had not experienced since 2008 when silver was traded around $ 8.50 . At this time PHYSICAL Silver is been aggressively accumulated (more than Gold). With every dip under $ 1,300 for Gold and under $ 15 for Silver, buyers turn up en masse.
  • Conclusion: this is the endgame; so don't expect to see lower gold and silver prices soon and advised is to take further positions NOW. At least if you can do it OUTSIDE the banking system and out of political reach. Keeping your metals under your church tower is not wise at all. Whoever does it anyway, will soon experience first hand what the citizens experienced at the time of the Operation Gutt.
  • Backwardation: is a situation where the cash price is HIGHER than the future price, the price with delivery against payment over eg. 6 months.
  • Note: the BIS holds more than $ 1 TRILLION derivatives ... No Trader will NEVER dump this huge amount of Futures contracts in a very thin market (as we had in recent weeks). To add insult to injury and this proofs the BIS DOESN'T GIVE A FUCK, more gold-paper contracts were traded on Thursday last week than is legally permitted. [This dumping action is ONLY possible on the paper market.]
  • This kind of action (now 5.5 million - the previous one was 2.2 million) reminds me of the 1960s and 1970s when the Goldpool was just following the same path. That is until the losses became so large that the Gold Market was closed for a week. When the gold market re-opened, the official gold price doubled. If this were to happen today, the gold price would rise from $ 1,300 to $ 2,600 in only ONE week time. Note that, after doubling, the gold price continued to rise to $ 850 per oz ...The price of Gold went up by a factor 25!... more in the Subscriber's section

Important Technicals:

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